As the number of COVID-19 cases has plummeted significantly over the last month and a half, one medical expert is predicting the U.S. will very soon reach herd immunity against the virus.
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed published Friday, Dr. Marty Makary, a health policy expert at the renowned Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, said the U.S. “is racing toward an extremely low level of infection.”
“As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected,” he explained. “At the current trajectory, I expect COVID will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.”
COVID-19 cases have dropped by a remarkable 77% in just six weeks.
That phenomenon, Makary explained, is because “natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing.”
“Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus,” he reasoned. “Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.”
***As the number of voices facing big-tech censorship continues to grow, please sign up for Faithwire’s daily newsletter and download the CBN News app, developed by our parent company, to stay up-to-date with the latest news from a distinctly Christian perspective.***
“Now add people getting vaccinated,” the doctor continued. “As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.”
However, as the pandemic continues, it’s becoming increasingly clear there are two Americas — or, at least, there are two very different ways of seeing the country.
While Makary has an increasingly optimistic perspective about the future, many Democrats and government health experts are offering a far more discouraging prognosis.
Earlier this week, President Joe Biden said the U.S. won’t begin to look different until at least “next Christmas.” And he said that, perhaps “a year from now,” there will be “significantly fewer people having to be socially distanced, heaving to wear a mask.” But, he said, he’s uncertain about that, too.
In late January, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Biden’s chief medical adviser, said that — even if 85% of Americans were vaccinated against COVID-19 by the end of the summer — we would only then begin to see a “degree of normality.” Experiencing mere hints of normal life by the end of 2021 would be a “best-case scenario,” he added.
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of Biden’s CDC, is quashing any hopes that the U.S. is anywhere near herd immunity.
“We’re not at the place where we believe that the current level of vaccination is what is driving down the current level of disease,” she said. “We believe that much of the surge of disease happened related to the holidays, related to travel. And so we believe that now we’re coming down from that. So I would articulate really loudly that, if you’re relying on our current level of vaccination rather than the other mitigation efforts to get us to remain low, that we shouldn’t rest in that comfort.”
And on Friday, Biden — who has been vaccinated yet wear two masks — reiterated his message that, even after vaccination, Americans must continue to wear masks and avoid coming together in-person.
Makary, for his part, said a great deal of scientists agree with him on herd immunity but are too fearful to concur publicly with his findings.
“Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little COVID-19 by April but suggested that I not talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine,” he wrote. “But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation.”
“Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices,” Makary added.
***As the number of voices facing big-tech censorship continues to grow, please sign up for Faithwire’s daily newsletter and download the CBN News app, developed by our parent company, to stay up-to-date with the latest news from a distinctly Christian perspective.***