Regent University professor Dr. A.J. Nolte said Iran’s Sunday attack on Israel left him surprised, noting the attempted incursion was the “first time the Islamic Republic has attacked Israel directly from its territory.”
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As CBN News previously reported, Iran fired more than 300 attack drones and missiles toward Israel, but the “vast majority” were intercepted, according to the Israeli military. Despite the positive outcome in terms of a lack of damage and destruction, the situation remains tense.
“I didn’t think they would go to this level,” Nolte told CBN News. “Certainly, Israel and Iran have been in a cold war in the past and Iran has used proxies against Israel in the past.”
But the decision to attack from Iranian soil, he said, adds a new dynamic to boiling tensions in the region. And Nolte said it makes the first assault by a state actor on Israeli territory since Saddam Hussein fired missiles at the nation in 1991.
The Biden administration has said the U.S. will not participate in any response and has reportedly urged Israel not to retaliate. But Nolte said he believes Israel should respond and likely will.
“Overwhelmingly, Israeli public opinion is going to support a response,” he said. “So, why would Benjamin Netanyahu put his own governing coalition at risk in order to appease Joe Biden? Who’s doing this? Let’s be honest, for reelection reasons, when Joe Biden and his party are basically attacking Netanyahu, so that makes no sense.”
Beyond that, Nolte said Israel’s response is the “right thing to do strategically,” though he said it doesn’t have to happen immediately. In the end, he said, the goal should be deterrence from Iran carrying out similar events in the future.
“What you want to think about in terms of deterrence is: you want to think about what is going to have the maximum impact.” he said. “What is the thing that you can do that has the maximum negative impact on Iran at the lowest … cost to Israel.”
Nolte said Israel has to weigh its current battles in the south in Gaza as well as incursions from the north, underscoring the importance of a strategic yet effective response.
“There’s a number of options they could pursue,” he continued. “They could strike at Iran’s ability to make these drones or missiles.”
Nolte also mentioned cyber attacks or more covert operations for which they don’t necessarily claim public responsibility. He said the options are plentiful, which might be why Israelis haven’t immediately struck and seem to be weighing the odds.
“When Israel strikes, it will be … I think, without warning,” Nolte said. “It will be in a way that Iran is not prepared for and does not expect — and it will be decisive.”
He continued, “It might not happen as quickly as people think. It might not happen … this week or even in the next month, but I believe it will happen.”
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